How do we move forward when there is so much complexity, so many possible next steps and not enough time to do them all?

I have previously written about working in complexity in my blog on an adaptive approach to influencing complex systems. This involved going with a minimum viable product and micro trials to test how well it is going in the real world, in adaptive cycles.

Another approach to working in complexity is to work out what the next best decision is.

We can be overwhelmed when tasked with change when there are many factors at play. These factors can interact making it not just hard to see a clear path forward but impossible to see a clear path forward.

Here are my 7 steps to making the next best decision when faced with complexity.

1. North star: Even though the path ahead may not be clear, what does need to be clear from the start is precisely what the end goal is. This end goal must be specific, straight forward and be easily describable to others. This does not imply the goal is easy, but rather it is very clear exactly the change that is needed. For example, a goal could be to have a new law that requires a minimum unit price on alcohol. We can be more specific and have a goal of matching the minimum unit price that was in the Norther Territory of $1.30 per standard drink. Being more specific again would identify the existing law to be changed, and the exact clause or part we want to have amended or introduced to bring this to implementation. This is different, for example, from having a goal to reduce alcohol harm to the community. Vague goals do not provide guidance on the next best step.
2. Shared goal: This goal must also be shared, as when we are working in a system it is not possible for one person to make the change. Ideally, we would understand the stakeholders, others who may share the same goal as us. This should include other government agencies, non-government organisations and university academics as well as community groups. When it comes to legislative reform, we also need to understand who our supporters are in parliament and the views of the community on the change we want to make. System change is hard, it takes people working together bringing their different perspectives, skills sets, resources and also networks.
3. Understand the decision maker: It is critical to understand who the decision maker is, what motivates them to make a decision, what do they need to make the decision, and what is the process for decision making. If we find, for example, that there is an information gap that the decision maker needs, then plugging that gap is a concrete step we can take. If we find that the decision maker will be motivated by broad community sentiment, then we need to understand what that sentiment is. We also need to understand the influence of those against our goal on the decision maker so this can be explicitly considered in our approach.
4. Gather the evidence: Evidence should be a fundamental part of starting on the journey. In the example of minimum unit price on alcohol, there is ample evidence that it is effective at reducing alcohol related harm. This scientific evidence is complemented by community sentiment in many places, where communities and advocacy groups are united in their views that a minimum unit price is necessary and warranted. We also have evidence of effective implementation that we can use to help assuage concerns about the feasibility of the proposed new law. Keeping an eye on the goal we can think about the evidence we need more specifically. We wouldn’t, for example, need more evidence that a minimum unit price works, but we may need an epidemiologically rigorous survey to measure community sentiment to support the decision making process.
5. What is possible to do now: Our next step is to look at what is possible to do in the current environment that we know will bring us closer to the goal, even if only slightly. This next best step might be to become a member of the relevant statutory board or council so we can more directly advocate for our cause, or to prepare a policy brief, or run a focus group to understand personal stories of harm from alcohol, for example.
6. Evaluate: Once the decision is made, explicitly evaluate the impact of the decision. Did it move you forward? Was it a necessary side move? Did it provide a building block for the future? Were there unexpected consequences? What have we learned from this step that can help us decide what the next best step is?
7. Repeat!

Best wishes on your next best decision journey!